BIG MARLEY’S UFC ON ESPN 1 DRAFTKINGS FANTASY BREAKDOWN
This weekend, we’ve got a 13-fight PPV card at Phoenix, Arizona. This is the very first ever UFC on big ESPN card and DK has some adequate competitions for us with this particular Sunday card. The most important GPP is that a $10 buy-in and $20k belongs to 1st place, and there will be $100k in total prizes. They also have a brand new Qualifier for $175,000. There will be 100 qualifiers for this last competition and they’ll compete for a $50k first location cost and $175k will be distributed between all 100 entries that match. Those Qualifier only competitions can be real bankroll suckers therefore be cautious chasing those overly hard. I’ll probably stick to the very best GPP this week and throw 50 or so entries at the $20k decoration. I will also be posting H2Hs as well as picking up H2Hs through the week to get a good amount of drama into money games. With that said, let us get to a few plays I like too as my fade of this week:
Cash Game play of this week — Vicente Luque ($9,400)
Vicente Luque is your safest play on the slate, in my view. I think he will be the better fighter anywhere this battle goes, and he should predominate. I like locking that triumph in my money match and I think he’s a good chance at getting 10x his $9.4k salary. I really do expect him to be hot in tournaments so in the event that you want to fade the possession there and attempt to become contrarian, I’d definitely need some Luque investment in cash games. Barberena is demanding so that he could last all 3 rounds and if he does then Luque might only score from the 80s and that will not win any GPPs. However, we could use an ~80-point win in cash games because we only have to beat half the area unlike those tournaments.
GPP drama of this week — Cain Velasquez ($9,000)
Cain Velasquez is my GPP play of the week due to the chances. A little more than a week ago he had been a -255 favored and that’s what led to his high $95 price tag. Now he is only -155 and the worth is currently on Ngannou in his 7.2k price tag. I anticipate Ngannou to be the highest owned fighter on the card and if Cain wins then he’ll kill off near half the field. Furthermore, if Cain wins he is likely scoring over 100-points. I anticipate his ownership to go down the more his gambling line decreases and that’s what makes him a fantastic GPP play. He’s a 0-point flooring, therefore I do not care for him in money game, however for GPPs we need boom or float to attempt and reach that 1st place prize.
Underdog drama of the week — Andre Fili ($7,400)
Andre Fili is my favorite dog of the week. He is $1,400 less costly than Myles Jury on DraftKings, however he’s just a +125 underdog. I believe he has a good chance of winning this battle and I am choosing him to get his hand raised. I expect this to be an extremely close fight, but I think Fili is going to probably be the fighter striking in the greater rate and that is precisely what I think do it for him to the judges’ scorecards. I really don’t see Fili with 100+ stage upside down but we don’t really need that at his $7.4k price label. I think he’s a great shot at getting at least 10x, so he’s playable in most formats for me.
Fade of this week — Andrea Lee ($8,900)
Andrea Lee is my fade of this week. Not because I believe she will lose, but I believe have a hard time seeing her about the $20k lineup in her salary. I enjoy the 9k range much greater than her and all of them have higher ceilings with their grappling-based match plans. Andrea Lee scored well in her UFC debut, but this is because she did use grappling there. I don’t see her doing this in this match because I presume Evans-Smith has the edge on the ground and she should be the one searching for takedowns. If Lee is going to win this battle, then she is going to have to do it on the feet and I really don’t see her having a high ceiling without a finish. The only reason to use her is because she is going to be super low possessed, and it’ll create your lineup , but I still wouldn’t advise it.
Thanks for reading this and decent luck this weekend! If you would like my own full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight on the card and provide my complete DraftKings evaluation, in Addition to all of my pick predictions, you’ll find that for only $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium stakes are available at that link as well. I’m 57-34 for +188.13un (+$18,813) because May 19th on Premium Plays)
Read more: https://montanayouthrugby.org/tennis-betting-odds/
