LSU vs Florida NCAAF Pick – Week 7
LSU Tigers and the Florida Gators both come with statement successes into this Saturdays game.
LSU moved to Texas and defeat the Longhorns in week two. The Gators stifled then-No. 7 Auburn at the Swamp last weekend. But during this weeks matchup in Death Valley, both teams look to take over a top-four spot in the race .
The defense of florida leads the way for them. They have given up the 8th-fewest offensive touchdowns (5), and have not given up a stage from the 4th quarter since their opener. Auburn QB Bo Nix flustered as he went 11 with three INTs into making bad decisions that were several last week.
But Joe Burrow is not Nix. He is a veteran quarterback and has led LSU to the greatest start in SEC history. They have averaged 54.6 points-per-game, the most in college football. This includes the 45 they dropped on the street on Texas.
As 13-point underdogs on BetNow the Gators come in Together with Death Valley awaitings roar. Would the No. 5 shield keep this close and cover the spread? Or will Burrow as well as also win the bet up and the No. 2 passing crime keep rolling? Here is the breakdown.
Theres hardly any doubt in Burrows ability . Hes converted to a Heisman candidate, acquiring a immaculate 22/3 TD/INT ratio and 11.5 yards-per-attempt (3rd at the FBS).
He is also working with a few of the getting groups in the nation. The trio of JaMarr Chase, Justin Jefferson, also Terrace Marshall Jr. have combined for 19 touchdowns along with 73 receptions, together with averages over 15 YPC for three.
Jefferson has good length with his 63 frame, and it has dominated in some huge games. Chase is a existence on the other side. Marshall Jr. will sit out until November with a foot injury, however, Derrick Dillon is a seasoned goal that will fill the area. It is all part of a passing game that has Burrow at a 78.4% completion percentage.
Theyll face undoubtedly the DB unit theyve played throughout the year. Northwestern State is an FCS group, but here would be the yards-per-attempt given up by the other competitors of LSU: Texas 124th Georgia Southern 111th, Vanderbilt 128th, and Utah State 103rd.
Florida now sits at 33rd, although its safe to say they have yet to play a QB of the standard of Burrow. They have played FCS QBs, a true freshman (Nix), a redshirt freshman making his first start (Jarren Williams, Miami), and Still, C.J. Henderson has been preseason All-American who is living up to his own billing. Shawn Davis generates a lot of havoc in the secondary (111 metres on three INTs). Marco Wilson is somewhat on irregular so far at the other corner spot, but nonetheless has a ceiling.
Burrow will face a ominous pass-rush, which will be healthy for the first time since their 10 sacks versus Miami on the introductory week. Jabari Zuniga, believed to be their best pass-rusher coming into this season, is coming back from injury. With him on both side along with Jonathan Greenard (4.0 sacks/6.5 TKFL) around the flip side, LSUs 63rd-ranked sofa rate in their o-line is going to be tested.
Since Kyle Trask replaced Feleipe Franks (ankle injury) since Floridas quarterback, the Gators have outscored opponents 115-16.
Even though his awareness have to improve in the pocket, then he has to get flustered with an opposing defensive lineup. Auburns according is the finest in the nation, and ranks 11th in lineup yards to Football Outsiders.
LSU is ranked 31st and is now currently 85th in sack speed. They will rely on blitzing LBs to help throw Trask off his game. The Florida QB is convinced in the pocket but is not out of it. He sprained a knee and wore a leg brace when he reentered the game.
Together with all the LBs All-American security Grant Delpit needs to come up big in coverage. He probably will face off against a matchup nightmare in Florida TE Kyle Pitts (25 receptions). Neutralizing Pitts (65-240pounds, 4.6 40-yard dashboard ) is imperative to LSUs success on D.
LSU–such as Floridas secondary–is frequently considered DBU for the gift they have on their defenses perimeter. Derek Stingley Jr. is continuing this legacy with performances which should land him on the All-Freshman team, if not more, in 2019.
Will soon be out of returning FBS corners Kristian Fulton, who permitted the smallest quantity of downs. It will be given an opportunity against a pressured Trask Although this group is in passing yards allowed per-game, 69th.
Balance is going to be as crucial as for Florida, who has not got their running game this season, going. Lamical Perine broke a tackle at the point on his way to a 88-yard TD run . Even with that, the Florida o-line ranks 113th based on yards and is currently going up from the No. 1 d-line in terms of power achievement (short-yardage scenarios ).
While the LSU front may not be strong. But Florida only compiles 3.66 YPA on the ground, and thats like Perines long run and also a 76-yard receiver sweep which shut out the Kentucky match.
It places a lot of stress on Trask at a hostile environment, Should they dont get Dameon or Perine Pierce going regularly.
Florida has earned admiration following a week from the college football world. And while I dont expect them to come out in Death Valley with a win from LSU, I do see this sport remaining than many.
LSUs offense made strides, also Burrow is just one of the more smart QBs in the FBS. But LSU isnt likely to put up 45 or something close to this against a defense who is proven at all 3 levels. Their pass-rush has fully evolved with Greenard wreaking chaos.
Since the staff has relied on them far too much to alter the wave in matches the Gators defense will wear out over time. Marco Wilson is going to be the subject from Jefferson or the Chase to a PIs.
However, I do not anticipate this until late in the fourth quarter. Keeping the game in enough of a slog until then makes Florida the bet on Saturday.
Prediction: LSU (30) — Florida (20)
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